Africa

Content type

Cameroonian Growth Will Decelerate In 2022, Rebound In 2023

Fitch Solutions / Article / Country Risk / Cameroon / Wed 07 Sep, 2022

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions expect Cameroon’s real GDP to grow by 3.4% in 2022, a slight deceleration from estimated growth of 3.6% in 2021.
  • Strong fixed investment and government consumption will be offset by weak private consumption amid rising inflation.
  • In 2023, we expect growth to accelerate to 4.5%, on recovering private consumption and strong fixed investment, notably in the hydrocarbons sector.

We at Fitch Solutions expect Cameroon’s real GDP to grow by 3.4% in 2022, a slight deceleration from estimated growth of 3.6% in 2021. While we expect strong fixed investment and government consumption, our 2022 headline figure

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More Monetary Tightening Ahead In Tunisia As Inflation Has Yet To Peak

Fitch Solutions / Article / Country Risk / Tunisia / Wed 07 Sep, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions we have revised up our forecast for 2022 average inflation in Tunisia from 7.8% to 8.1%, the highest since 1991.
  • Worsening food and fuel shortages and higher imported inflation will increase price pressures with inflation likely peaking in Q422.
  • We hold our view that the Central Bank of Tunisia will implement another 125bps of tightening in the remainder of 2022, after raising rates by 75bps in May 2022.
  • In 2023, we forecast that Tunisia’s inflation will average 7.1% as price pressures ease, prompting less aggressive rate hikes.

At Fitch Solutions we have revised up our forecast for 2022 average

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South African Growth To Remain Weak After Sharp Q222 Slowdown

Fitch Solutions / Article / Country Risk / South Africa / Tue 06 Sep, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that South Africa’s real GDP will expand by just 1.7% in 2022, after growth slowed to 0.7% y-o-y in Q222.
  • Net exports will act as the main drag on growth, but private and public consumption will also weaken in H222, mitigating the positive impact of robust private investment.
  • We see growth rising very slightly to 1.9% in 2023, driven by still strong investment and a slight uptick in government spending.

At Fitch Solutions, we retain our forecast that South Africa’s real GDP growth will slow from 4.9% in 2021 to 1.7% in 2022. Data released on September 6 shows that real GDP growth, in y-o-y

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Tanzania's Reform Momentum Will Accelerate

Fitch Solutions / Article / Country Risk / Tanzania / Mon 05 Sep, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that rising expenditure will help to cushion households against elevated inflation levels, limiting the impact on social stability.
  • We expect investment inflows to continue to tick up on the back of improving relations with foreign governments and multinational organisations.
  • Meanwhile, we believe that reconciliation attempts are likely to reduce risks of protests and increase the likelihood of political continuity in the long-term.

At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that rising government expenditure in Tanzania will help to cushion households against elevated inflation levels, limiting the

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Food Lover's Market Expansion Plans Will Be Challenged By A Competitive MGR Market

Fitch Solutions / Article / Food & Drink / South Africa / Wed 31 Aug, 2022

Key View: At Fitch Solutions, we hold a neutral view on the expansion plans of Food Lover's Market (FLM). The retailer aims to create a specialised food experience for consumers, while still selling locally sourced produce, at affordable prices. South Africa's well-developed grocery segment, with a number of strong competitors who have adapted efficiently to the demands of the market will provide challenging headwinds. While we believe the growing number of middle-income households who are still malleable in their preferences will provide a strong consumer base for FLM to target over the medium to longer term (2022-2030), the highly

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Growing Inflation Concerns To Prompt More Rate Hikes In Ghana

Fitch Solutions / Article / Country Risk / Ghana / Wed 31 Aug, 2022

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we expect that the Bank of Ghana (BoG) will continue its hiking cycle, raising the monetary policy rate to 24.00% by year-end, after having hiked by 300 basis points (bps) to 22.00% at its emergency meeting in August.

  • Inflation will remain elevated - driven by the rapid depreciation of the cedi - and will only peak in Q422, incentivising the BoG to remain hawkish over the coming months.

  • We expect that the BoG would have to tighten monetary policy further as a condition of a likely IMF deal, and forecast that the central bank will increase the benchmark interest rate by 300bps to 27.00% in

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