Long Reads

Global Macroeconomic & Industry Key Themes 2022

White Paper / Commodities / Global / Wed 15 Dec, 2021

Global Macro & Industry Key Themes 2022: What the Report Covers

Discover the Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research analysts’ view of the key global macroeconomic and industry themes that will shape 2022.

Using our Connected Thinking methodology, which brings together views from Fitch Solutions macroeconomic, country risk, political risk, and industry analysts, this report explores key themes including:

  • Almost Full Economic Normalisation & Covid Policy Pivot
  • Industries Returning to Stability Post-Covid
  • Another Year of Above-trend Growth, But A Cyclical Slowdown Nonetheless
  • Inflation Will Peak as Rebalancing Occurs
  • Rising Polarisation & Divergent Reform Momentum
  • Financial Markets Not A One-Way Bet In 2022
  • A Tough Landscape for EM Policymakers
  • Developed Markets Will Start to Tighten Policy, But Not as Much as Rate Markets Suggest
  • Old Opportunities and Risks in Geopolitics
  • Tourism Will See an Uneven Recovery
  • Supply Chain Adjustments Gaining Pace
  • US-China Tensions to Impact Several Industries
  • Elevated Input Prices: Low-Carbon Transition Under Pressure
  • Digital Transformation: All Systems Go
  • ESG: All Industries Making Moves
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Global Macro & Industry Key Themes 2022: A Brief Summary

In the coming year, we see a still-complex global economic environment, with major issues such as high Covid-19 infection rates, above-target inflation, supply chain risks continuing, and several new challenges arising. The global economy will be moving into a later stage of its cycle, and there will be significant uncertainty around the outlook for interest rates, global political risk and the path of Covid-19.

Our Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare team expects the risks from Covid-19 to diminish over the coming quarters, allowing many developed markets and most emerging markets to return to ‘normal’ by mid-2022, with positive growth implications. The strongest growth will be exhibited in consumer-facing industries, including autos, retail, food & drink and healthcare-related sectors, reflecting the continued recovery of the consumer as well as sustained investment in healthcare globally.

Nevertheless, we highlight several important downside risks for the world economy in 2022 that need to remain top of mind. These include credit stress from the property sector in China spreading to the wider economy, the emergence of new Covid-19 variants, and the risk that rather than easing as expected, price pressures could remain strong in 2022, triggering a more aggressive tightening cycle and causing volatility and depressed growth as investors and consumers retrench.

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