Long Reads

Latin America Monthly Outlook: US Recession Risks Threaten Latin American Growth

Presentation / Country Risk / Latin America / Sat 30 Jul, 2022

While we at Fitch Solutions expect positive full-year growth for the US in 2022 and 2023, we believe that the risks of a recession are mounting. A US recession would be a blow to Latin America’s real GDP outlook, via the trade and remittance channels. In addition, a US recession would have knock-on effects for overall global demand and market sentiment, impacting every economy in Latin America.

Topics covered include:

  • Recession Risks In The US Are Rising
  • Any Recession Would Be Softer Than Average, But A Slow Recovery
  • US Recession Would Drag Down Growth In Latin America In 2023
  • Mexico, Central America The Most Exposed
  • Caribbean Growth Also At Risk
  • Weaker Global Growth Would Bring Down Commodity Prices, Inflation
  • Inflationary Impact Could Adjust Central Bank Hiking Cycles
  • Recession Would Intensify Political Risk In Latin America

The presentation also includes Fitch Solutions forecasts versus Bloomberg Consensus for 2022 GDP Growth, Exchange Rates, Inflation and Interest Rates.

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