Article

Netherlands EV Profile: ICE-Car Sales Ban By 2030 Will Boost Uptake

Fitch Solutions / Autos / Netherlands / Thu 25 Aug, 2022

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Key View: This quarter, we maintain our bullish forecast for EV sales on the back of the government's announcement that all newly registered taxis and rental cars in major cities must be emissions-free by 2025.

Electric Vehicle Market - Historical Data And Forecasts (Netherlands 2022-2031)

Indicator 2022f 2023f 2024f 2025f 2026f 2027f 2028f 2029f 2030f 2031f
Electric vehicle sales, units 155,110 197,634 238,359 250,658 300,315 357,250 422,742 434,620 470,110 508,242
Electric vehicle sales, % y-o-y 62.4 27.4 20.6 5.2 19.8 19.0 18.3 2.8 8.2 8.1
Battery electric vehicle sales, units 108,577 158,107 214,523 225,592 285,299 339,388 401,605 412,889 446,605 482,830
Battery electric vehicle sales, % y-o-y 68.7 45.6 35.7 5.2 26.5 19.0 18.3 2.8 8.2 8.1
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales, units 46,533 39,527 23,836 25,066 15,016 17,863 21,137 21,731 23,506 25,412
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle sales, % y-o-y 49.3 -15.1 -39.7 5.2 -40.1 19.0 18.3 2.8 8.2 8.1
f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Local sources, Fitch Solutions

Latest Developments And Key Drivers

  • We expect that the electric vehicle (EV) market will exhibit strong growth in the Netherlands in 2022. This quarter, we have made an upward revision to our forecast on the back of the government's announcement that all newly registered taxis and rental cars in major cities must be emissions-free by 2025. We believe this poses an upside risk to EV sales in the near term.
  • We expect EV sales in 2022, 2023 and 2024 to expand by 62.4% (155,000 total units sold), 27.4% (197,600) and 20.6% (238,400) y-o-y.
  • The remainder of the Netherlands have until 2030 to make the change, and there will be no subsidies to support this transition, thus our upward revision is restricted.
  • Also informing our outlook is the exceptionally strong sales of EVs in Q421. Notably, December 2021 was the second-best month on record for EV sales in the Netherlands, with 23,150 new registrations, including 20,264 battery electric vehicles (BEVs) (59.1% market share of monthly sales) and 1,948 PHEVs (5.7% market share).
  • While the Ford Mustang Mach-E model sold the greatest number of units in December 2021 at 1,193 units, the Skoda Enyaq iV was the best-selling model for the year with 6,685 units sold.
  • The factors supporting the advanced rate of EV adoption in the Netherlands will continue throughout 2022. These factors include but are not exclusive to; generous subsidies of up to EUR4,000 (USD4,849) for a BEV, an estimated 52,000 public and semi-public EV charging points and a highly urbanised, environmentally conscious populous.
  • EV adoption is also strong in the Netherlands due to its charging infrastructure; the country has the largest number of EV charging stations in Europe with a total of 75,000, a third of the EU total. This infrastructure and government incentives make EVs highly attractive to consumers in the country, and we expect EV uptake to remain strong throughout our forecast, with EV sales averaging at 90.0% of annual vehicle sales from 2022-2031.
  • According to a report, Netherlands residents that buy a new electric car after July 1 2020, can receive EUR4,000 (USD4,425) towards its cost from the government. Second-hand EV purchases, in turn, are eligible for EUR2,000 (USD2,211).
  • The Netherlands offers the following BEV incentives on top of the financial incentives stated above:
  • BEVs are exempted from CO2 registration tax
  • BEVs are also exempted from road taxes
  • BEVs are subjected to lower benefit-in-kind tax
  • The European Commission's unveiling of its package of new climate change-related policies in July 2021, the so-called 'Fit for 55' proposals, adds greater urgency to the EU's decarbonisation efforts while shifting the regulatory landscape to incentivise greater green infrastructure investment. A stand-alone emissions trading scheme for buildings and road transport, coupled with a ban on the sale of internal combustion engine vehicles from 2035, will spur investment to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and EV charging infrastructure and avoid the additional costs of carbon-intensive activities in these sectors.

ICE-Car Sales Ban By 2030 Will Boost Uptake

Netherlands - EV Fleet By Type & EV Fleet Penetration (2022-2031)

f = Fitch Solutions forecast. Source: Local sources, Fitch Solutions

This report from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research is a product of Fitch Solutions Group Ltd, UK Company registration number 08789939 ('FSG'). FSG is an affiliate of Fitch Ratings Inc. ('Fitch Ratings'). FSG is solely responsible for the content of this report, without any input from Fitch Ratings. Copyright © 2021 Fitch Solutions Group Limited. © Fitch Solutions Group Limited All rights reserved. 30 North Colonnade, London E14 5GN, UK.

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