Tensions are rising in Eurasia as the build-up of Russian troops along Ukraine’s eastern border heightens concerns over invasion, while Russia prepares to send a peacekeeping force into Kazakhstan to help quell unrest, in support of the Moscow-allied President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. 

In this webinar, we examine the situation in both countries, outlining our core view and considering alternative scenarios. In each case, we talk about the economic implications, touch on the impact on the highly important Oil & Gas sector and consider what the developments mean for wider geopolitical stability.

Topics covered will include:

Ukraine

  • Will Russia’s troop build-up on Ukraine’s eastern border ultimately lead to invasion or will the two sides avoid military conflict?
  • What has been agreed at the Russia-NATO talks, and what are the areas of continued disagreement?
  • Oil & Gas implications: When will Nord Stream 2 come online, and will the current tensions have an impact on that timeline?

Kazakhstan

  • What caused the large-scale protests, and can we expect similar unrest elsewhere in the region?
  • Is a prolonged military presence by Russian forces likely, and what impact, if any, will it have on Russia’s policy toward Ukraine?

THIS COMMENTARY IS PUBLISHED BY FITCH SOLUTIONS COUNTRY RISK & INDUSTRY RESEARCH and is NOT a comment on Fitch Ratings' Credit Ratings. Any comments or data are solely derived from Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research and independent sources. Fitch Ratings analysts do not share data or information with Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research.

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